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ENEMY OF THE STATE


 Where's The Oil Money? By David Ignatius (WaPo)
 

http://lnk.nu/washingtonpost.com/6ut.html

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Where's The Oil Money?

By David Ignatius

Friday, December 9, 2005; A31

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DUBAI -- If you've been wondering what happens to that extra money you're paying at the gas pump, take a stroll amid the skyscrapers and super-luxury hotels of this desert emirate, which is becoming the global economy's biggest boomtown.

The pace of development in Dubai makes you dizzy: This tiny country is planning the world's tallest building, the world's biggest shopping mall, the world's largest fleet of jumbo airplanes. It is building a $4.3 billion World Trade Center, an $11 billion Festival City, a $10 billion theme park known as Dubailand. One measure of the boom here is that the real estate listings in Monday's Gulf News ran to 148 pages.

The hotels are so fancy they're giving themselves extra stars beyond the usual five -- the trademark Burj al Arab, built in the shape of an Arabian dhow's sail, calls itself the world's first seven-star hotel, for example. Giorgio Armani, who's joining the Dubai mania by building his first hotel here, enthused in the local paper this week: "Dubai is the new New York." And that may be an understatement.

The Dubai investment craze helps answer a question that has been puzzling economists over the past few months -- namely, what's happening to the estimated $400 billion current account surplus harvested this year by oil exporters? Economist Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley described the issue in a recent commentary as "The Case of the Missing Petro-Dollars." Well, as Roach noted, some of that missing money is right here in Dubai, fueling what's either a development miracle or an Arabian asset bubble, depending on how you look at it.

What's clear is that the current oil boom is leading to different patterns of investment from those of the 1970s. That's the conclusion of the Bank for International Settlements in its December quarterly review. The bank found that a smaller share of the oil windfall is being invested in Western banks this time around -- and that about 70 percent of investable funds generated in the current oil boom can't be tracked by conventional measures.

The BIS speculates that the petrodollars are going into hedge funds, private equity funds and regional stock markets. Certainly far more is being pumped into the stock markets of the Gulf countries themselves. A recent study by the International Monetary Fund calculated that the Qatar stock market's capitalization nearly tripled from 2001 to 2004, the Saudi market's more than tripled and the United Arab Emirates market increased sevenfold.

Who's not sharing in the current petrodollar windfall at the same rate as in the 1970s? If you guessed the United States, you're right. The BIS noted that evidence suggests "a smaller share of investable funds has been channeled into U.S. securities in the most recent cycle." And a recent study found that OPEC holdings of Treasury securities fell from a peak of $67.6 billion in February to $54.6 billion in September. For economists, the question isn't "Why do they hate us?" Instead it's "Why don't they invest with us?" The basic reason, surely, is that investors think they'll do better in the booming emerging markets than in a flat U.S. equity market.

Each oil boom seems to carry the seeds of a later financial bust, as funds are recycled into speculative lending and investments that eventually crash. This time the speculative frenzy isn't operating mainly through New York banks but through financial institutions in places such as Dubai, which will be left with the IOUs, Paul Blustein suggested in The Post this week.

The Dubai bubble will eventually burst, but that "eventually" may be a way off. One perverse dynamic is what I would call the bin Laden factor. Every Arab investor in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar has to worry that Islamic fundamentalists will someday upset the money machine -- and in anticipation of that disaster, they all want somewhere to run. As the Arab world's ultimate gated community, Dubai probably looks like the safest bet in the region. That fear factor is helping sell out the scores of new apartment towers sprouting here.

And then there's the durability of the oil boom itself. Many analysts doubt it will end soon -- without a global economic crash, that is. Fareed Mohamedi of PFC Energy reckons that the new appetite for spending in Dubai and other Gulf states will require producers to maintain oil prices indefinitely at $50 to $60 a barrel.

You're paying for the new oil boom, and if you can't beat it, perhaps you should consider a visit to "Ski Dubai," the indoor Alpine resort that just opened here in the scorching desert. It's a snapshot of life in the new fast lane of the global economy.

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© 2005 The Washington Post Company
Posted by ENEMY OF THE STATE at 7:03 AM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 Bush's 'Lucid Dreams' Becoming Nightmares
 

http://www.antiwar.com/orig/hadar.php?articleid=8229

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December 9, 2005

Bush's 'Lucid Dreams' Becoming Nightmares

Washington's plans to 'punish' China and 'win' in Iraq are turning into worthless adventures

by Leon Hadar

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Dreams "are chief nourishers in life's feast," wrote Shakespeare in Macbeth.

Indeed, while dreams offer a private means to explore inner reality and to gain unique, undeniable, personal experiences, psychologists also recognize that there is overwhelming evidence that dreams can be used to improve waking life, often immeasurably as storehouses of creativity.

Many people often remember no dreams at all, and even when they do, it is almost exclusively upon awakening. But scientists are now exploring what they call "lucid dreams."

In that condition, one realizes that he or she is dreaming while the dream is still happening.

The dreamer becomes aware that the world being experienced, although appearing very believable, is actually a dream and that his or her physical body is elsewhere safe asleep in bed.

With this new understanding, the lucid dreamer is free to explore remarkable worlds limited only by imagination. The increased clarity of this lucid state often enables the dreamer to awake laden with creative insights.

Examples of dream-inspired works are the Beatles' well-known hit "Yesterday" and Robert Louis Stevenson's The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

Golfer Jack Nicklaus claims to have solved a problem with his golf swing within a dream, which subsequently improved his game by 10 strokes.

Formulating Policy

And now we can even study the way lucid dreams provide U.S. leaders, officials, and lawmakers with rich sources of creativity to help them formulate policy toward China and on Iraq.

Hence two leading U.S. lawmakers, Democrat Sen. Charles Schumer and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, have been exploring their lucid dream – in which the United States threatens to impose tariffs of 27.5 percent on Chinese imports if Beijing doesn't allow the yuan to float more freely – as a basis for a bill they co-sponsored and which was backed by 67 other senators.

Last week, the Bush administration, resisting pressures from the China-bashers, refused to brand China as a currency manipulator.

Instead, in a report issued by the Treasury Department every six months on the currency policies of the nation's trading partners, the U.S. only expressed disappointment that trading in the yuan is "highly constricted."

Schumer and Graham are angry and are now threatening to demand a vote on their bill – a move that could ignite a major trade war between China and the U.S.

In their lucid dream, Schumer, Graham, and other China-bashers on Capitol Hill not only expect Beijing to surrender to American pressure, they also predict that China's trade surplus with the U.S. – which has continued to balloon in 2005 and is expected to approach a record $200 billion – would vanish into thin air if and when the Chinese agree to float their currency.

In reality, the Chinese are reluctant to be bullied into a decision they are not yet ready to make. And even if the U.S. does implement 27.5 percent import duties on Chinese products, such an action will do little – if anything – to change U.S. trade patterns, rising current account deficits, and large public-sector dissavings. Moreover, if the Chinese do let the yuan float, the consequences for the U.S. and the global economy could be catastrophic.

If Chinese authorities were to float the yuan and the currency indeed appreciates significantly, China's thirst for U.S. government securities would be quenched almost immediately. Instead of piling up low-yield U.S. Treasury bonds, the Chinese monetary authorities could allocate their capital more efficiently and might even be tempted to sell some of their existing stocks of dollar-denominated securities.

Such a move would dramatically weaken the value of the U.S. dollar and encourage other central banks in Asia to sell their U.S. Treasury bonds.

Financing the Deficit

And without the Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans willing to finance America's expanding deficit, even the lucid dream of President George W. Bush and his neoconservative aides of "democratizing" Iraq, the Middle East, and the entire planet would be shattered – especially since in that dream, no one raises taxes or cuts domestic social programs in order to free money to pay for the occupation of Iraq, Afghanistan, and other nation-building operations in the growing number of U.S.-controlled imperial outposts.

Like golfer Nicklaus resolving the problem with his golf swing, Bush and the neocons have drawn the "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq" within a dream in which effective Iraqi security and military forces defeat the insurgency, the Iraqi people unite behind their democratically elected government, and Iraq serves as a model of freedom for the entire Middle East.

The main elements in this lucid dream were described by Bush during his plan-for-victory address at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis last Wednesday and in a 35-page report on "winning" the war.

Nicklaus may have improved his game by 10 strokes by re-creating his lucid dream. Unfortunately, when it comes to U.S. policy in Iraq, and not unlike the China-bashers' plans to punish China, it's becoming obvious to those of us who haven't fallen asleep and are not residing in Dreamland that the dreams concocted in the heads of officials and lawmakers in Washington are looking more and more like real nightmares now.

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Copyright © 2005 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.

Posted by ENEMY OF THE STATE at 6:58 AM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 IRANIAN DEATH WISH? Iran's President Says Nuclear Drive Won't End - Tells Israel to Move!?!
 

http://lnk.nu/english.aljazeera.net/6uj.htm

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Iran: No end to nuclear drive

Thursday 08 December 2005 3:36 PM GMT


Ahmadinejad: Civilian use of
N-power is non-negotiable right

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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Iran will not halt its drive to produce its own nuclear fuel because it does not trust the West to guarantee a supply to feed its planned atomic power reactors.

Speaking in Makka, the Muslim holy city in western Saudi Arabia, where he was attending an Islamic summit, Ahmadinejad said Iran's right to develop a full civilian nuclear programme was non-negotiable.

"We are not allowed to negotiate on the principle of having peaceful nuclear technology," Iran's official IRNA news agency quoted him as telling a news conference.

Iran has cold-shouldered an offer by the EU3 powers - Britain, France and Germany - to resume dialogue this month based on Russia's proposal to process Iranian uranium as a joint venture to minimise the risk of bomb-making by Tehran.

The Islamic republic says its nuclear project aims only to produce electricity, not weapons as the West suspects.

"You are telling us we can't produce nuclear fuel, that we will give it to you. You who imposed medical embargoes on nations that caused the death of countless numbers of people, what guarantees are there that you will give us nuclear fuel?" Ahmadinejad said.

Makka declaration

The Iranian president was just one of dozens of Muslim leaders from across the globe who agreed on Thursday on measures to combat terrorism and defend the image of Islam at the Makka gathering.

The leaders wound up a two-day summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) pledging to "update national laws to criminalise all acts of terrorism as well as its financing and incitement".

The Makka summit called for an end to terrorism and extremismIn a Makka Declaration read out in a final session, they also called upon their peoples to "combat forcefully the preachers of sedition and deviation, who aim to distort the peaceful principles of Islam".

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said late on Wednesday that Muslim leaders who met in Makka had agreed to "combat terrorism and extremism and stressed the moderate nature of Islam".

They stressed the need to stop blaming outside forces for problems in the Muslim world and focus on cooperation, he said.

Deviants

"Islamic unity would not be reached through bloodshed as claimed by the deviants," said King Abdullah, whose country hosts the headquarters of the 57-member OIC.

King Abdullah was referring to Muslim fighters, notably al-Qaida network of Saudi-born Osama bin Ladin which has claimed attacks across the globe, including in Saudi Arabia.

He called on the Islamic jurisprudence arm of the OIC to "fulfil its historic role of combating extremism".

He also called for a reform of educational programmes in Muslim states, which are facing US pressure to change school textbooks that Washington has criticised as intolerant.

Agencies

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4510922.stm

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Iran's president says move Israel


Iran's president has already called
for Israel to be wiped off the map

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Iran's conservative president has said that Israel should be moved to Europe.

"If European countries claim that they have killed Jews in World War II... why don't they provide the Zionist regime with a piece of Europe," Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Iranian television.

"Germany and Austria can provide the... regime with two or three provinces for this regime to establish itself, and the issue will be resolved."

The president's remarks were quickly condemned by Israel and the US.

"This is not the first time, unfortunately, that the Iranian president has expressed the most outrageous ideas concerning Jews and Israel," Israeli foreign ministry spokesman Mark Regev said.

"He is not just Israel's problem. He is a worry for the entire international community," he added.

'Outrageous'

Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel, quoted by AFP agency, described the remarks as "an outrageous gaffe, which I want to repudiate in the sharpest manner".

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said the Iranian leader's comments "further underscore our concerns about the regime".

"And it's all the more reason why it's so important that the regime not have the ability to develop nuclear weapons," he said.

UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said: "I condemn [the comments] unreservedly. They have no place in civilised political debate."

Mr Ahmadinejad's stance was also condemned by French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who were meeting in Berlin.

Nuclear row

In October, Mr Ahmadinejad caused an outcry by calling for Israel to "be wiped off the map".

His latest comments come as Iran is mired in controversy over its nuclear programme, which it says is solely for the provision of fuel, but which the US says is aimed at producing nuclear weapons.

An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report in September said questions about Iran's nuclear programme remained unanswered despite an intensive investigation.
Posted by ENEMY OF THE STATE at 6:53 AM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 WTO Meeting in Hong Kong: Corporate Globalization
 

http://www.commondreams.org/views05/1208-20.htm

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Published on Thursday, December 8, 2005 by CommonDreams.org

WTO Meeting in Hong Kong: Corporate Globalization

by Deborah James

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From December 13 to 18, the World Trade Organization will hold its 6th ministerial meeting in Hong Kong, China, to negotiate the fate of public services, the global food supply, and jobs and development. Representatives from 148 countries will meet to shape the future of the global economy for the world’s 6 billion people.

WTO proponents are attempting to portray the crisis in negotiations as though the problem were the lack of European (particularly French) or Brazilian “ambition” to break through the deadlock.

But the real issue is that the WTO is in crisis because the model of corporate globalization has failed to produce economic growth, its supposed mandate. For ten years, the WTO has helped to promote a surge in global trade – and yet this increase in trade has failed to raise economic growth, even to the levels achieved during the pre-1980 era. It has also failed to alleviate poverty. According to the United Nations, we still live in a world where 24,000 people die worldwide every day from hunger and poverty-related diseases.

Now that the record is clear, global social movements and many governments are questioning the WTO’s attack on sovereignty, democracy and the ability of poor countries to develop. Thousands of farmers, workers, environmentalists, women, people of faith, immigrants, and human rights advocates from Hong Kong, Bolivia, South Korea, Canada, South Africa, Indonesia, Europe, the Philippines, the US, and other countries, will meet in Hong Kong this December, to protest the undemocratic WTO and its destructive impact on communities, democracy, development, and the environment.

It’s the Model that’s Broken

The WTO aims to consolidate a series of policy reforms that many countries have implemented over the last 25 years, following IMF and World Bank structural adjustment programs in developing countries, and Reagan-Thatcher prescriptions in the US and Europe. Referred to as “free trade,” “ the Washington Consensus” or what we call “corporate globalization,” the policies include privatizing public services, weakening labor laws, deregulating industry, opening up to foreign investment, shrinking the non-military government, lowering of tariffs and subsidies, and focusing on exports over production for national markets.

This time period has seen a sharp decline in economic growth worldwide.

The WTO has failed to produce economic growth because this entire model is actually geared to increase the power of corporations in the governance of the global economy. Rather than governing just trade, the WTO is better understood as a global corporate power-grab, aiming to impose a one-size-fits-all set of rules on national issues of public services, intellectual property, agriculture, industrial development, and more. Under this flawed model of corporate globalization, not only is economic growth sluggish, but economic inequality has vastly increased, diminishing prospects for development and the attainment of universal economic human rights.

Best Case Scenario: Less than a Penny a Day

Not only is the WTO’s record dismal, but future prospects look even dimmer. Even according to traditional economic models, new figures show much less global economic growth from the current WTO round than originally projected. In the recent study released by the World Bank, a successful outcome in the current negotiations could expect global economic gains of a mere $3 to $20 a year per person worldwide by 2015, of which more than two-thirds would go to the rich countries .

But one of the most fascinating conclusions of the study was that gains from complete trade liberalization worldwide – a highly unlikely scenario – would amount to a mere $287 billion in 2015. Seems like a big number, but that’s a paltry 0.7% of global GDP projected that year.

Let’s put this statistic into reality. Imagine living in a country where your annual income is a buck a day. Under complete trade liberalization, according to one of its greatest proponents, your dollar a day income would rise to a buck and 7/10ths of one penny.

That’s why over 130 groups – led by trade unions - around the world are releasing a statement today called “The Doha Development Round: a recipe for the massive destruction of livelihoods, mass unemployment and the de gradation of work.” The statement begins, “When the world’s trade ministers put their signatures to the founding document of the WTO in April 1994 in Marrakesh, their very first sentence establishing the WTO committed them to raising standards of living, ensuring full employment and a large and steadily growing volume of real income.

“Has the Marrakesh miracle materialized? Are employment and livelihoods ensured and steadily growing? No. The WTO's trade and investment rules have taken the world in the opposite direction, and the current negotiations threaten to take us further still. After ten years under the WTO, unemployment has climbed around the world.”

Other economic models have historically delivered much higher levels of development than the supporters of the WTO model claim to offer, such as those used by many developing countries before the IMF started controlling their economies. In addition, other models – such as focusing on investments in health care and education – have proven to alleviate poverty far more effectively than just focusing on trade and investment liberalization.

For example, the two fastest growing economies in Latin America – posting growth around 9% this year – are Argentina and Venezuela, which have both followed unorthodox economic polices that are not favored by international financial institutions and the leaders of the WTO.

The International Forum on Globalization’s seminal collection, Alternatives to Economic Globalization: A Better World is Possible, highlights a number of these policy alternatives, culled from some of the most luminary thinkers on these issues from around the world, including Walden Bello, Vandana Shiva, Jerry Mander, Lori Wallach, and others.

Up for Grabs: Services, Agriculture, and Jobs

On December 1, the Director General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, distributed a second draft of the proposed Declaration that the WTO Ministerial meeting will discuss in Hong Kong. Many developing countries reacted swiftly in Geneva, voicing serious concerns about the text, as it overly represents the interests of developed countries and corporate interests at the expense of development issues.

So what’s really happening in the WTO?

Services: In recent years, corporations have fought to redefine “trade” to include services. Rather than seeing that services like water distribution, health care, and education are human rights, the WTO aims to privatize these public services, which would increase corporate profits but limit access for the poor. That’s why social movements in Bolivia are launching a new campaign, “Water Out of the WTO.”

Rich country negotiators also want to deregulate private sector services, like electricity distribution, banking, and tourism, by restricting public oversight over corporations. Just what we need: Less regulation of key industries like accounting and energy distribution, so we can have more Enron and Arthur Anderson scandals.

Unsatisfied with the number of services developing countries have offered to be sold off to foreign multinational corporations, the US and Europe have made recent demands that countries offer a minimum number of services for complete liberalization. This new demand has no basis in the Doha Declaration, which gives WTO negotiators the mandate for the talks, and has met with stiff resistance from developing countries.

Even more controversial are the talks on what the WTO calls the “movement of natural persons,” or “Mode 4” in WTO-speak. The WTO should not be setting domestic immigration policy, particularly as the proposed rules drastically limit immigrant workers’ labor rights, and would contribute to the global brain drain in developing countries.

Agriculture: Land reform, food subsidies for the poor, and sustainable production are core elements of a fair and healthy food system. But the WTO rules are based on an ideology of food for export, not for eating.

The main points of contention in the agricultural negotiations are domestic subsidies and import tariffs. But the US and Europe, with stunning hypocrisy, have largely won exemptions for the types of subsidies they use. Agriculture negotiations are far behind the Services and NAMA, because agriculture is the area in which the developed countries are not competitive.

Readers might remember the tragic suicide of Korean farmer Lee Kyung Hae during the Cancún WTO ministerial two years ago, wearing a sign that read “WTO Kills Farmers.”

This time, the Ministerial is presaged by such a tragedy. During Bush’s visit last month to a Summit of Asian and Pacific Economic Cooperation, a young Korean farmer killed herself by drinking insecticide – to protest the deadly WTO farm policies of allowing massive importation of foreign subsidized rice. If the WTO Agreement on Agriculture were fully implemented, tens of millions of small farmers in poor countries could lose their livelihoods – no matter what happens to subsidies.

Jobs and Natural Resources: In another key area of negotiation, rich countries are pressuring poor country governments to lower tariffs on industrial products and natural resources (Non-Agricultural Market Access, or NAMA). Using tariffs to protect new and developing industries against competition from foreign products is a cornerstone of industrial policy, one that every developed country has used to protect jobs and national industries. If negotiations continue, the WTO would kick away the ladder of development - permanently.

In addition, NAMA would increase trade in important natural resources such as forest products, gems and minerals, and fish products, and tear away at “Non-Tariff Barriers” that we call health and safety regulations.

Tariffs are essentially taxes on corporations for the privilege of making money in a foreign country, so tariff reduction should be understood as a giant corporate tax abolition scheme. If corporate interests get their way, rich countries will be able to force developing nations to drastically reduce their tariffs. Then many small developing countries, which depend on tariff income as a significant chunk of their national budgets, would see financing for health care and education siphoned off radically.

The Third World Network’s Martin Khor has called the NAMA negotiations the “end of development.”

Window of Opportunity

The potential failure of the 6th Ministerial will actually throw the WTO into a deep crisis. After failing to launch the so-called Millennium Round in 1999 in Seattle, this current round of negotiations was launched in Doha, Qatar in 2001. A second ministerial collapsed amidst massive civil society protests in September 2003. Negotiations were supposed to have been wrapped up by January 2005, yet are still stalled on the basic framework.

If the framework (modalities, in WTO-speak) is not completed by March, it will be extremely difficult for negotiators to wrap up the technical negotiations in time to send the final agreements to the US Congress before the expiration of Fast Track negotiating authority in July 2007.

The 6th Ministerial of the WTO follows on the heels of another failed ministerial, the Summit of the Americas in Mar del Plata, Argentina. The Bush administration attempted to use the meeting to jump-start the stalled FTAA talks, but the meeting ended without even a declaration. This failure was widely interpreted in the mainstream media as an indictment of the entire model of corporate globalization in Latin America.

If developing country governments, in conjunction with global civil society, can stand up to the pressure of US and European arm-twisting and outrageous demands, the Hong Kong Ministerial could fall apart again, just like Seattle, Cancún, and Mar del Plata.

In the US media, we will likely hear about the lack of European or Brazilian “ambition” to break through the negotiations deadlock. But the truth is clear: The radical experiment of instituting a global corporate government has failed to deliver economic growth, development, or democracy, and never will.

It’s not just the negotiations that are broken, it’s the model.

The next few months offer a crucial window for us to turn back the tide of corporate globalization – and instead build a vision of a global economy based on life values, not money values. Let’s not miss the opportunity.

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Deborah James is the Global Economy Director of Global Exchange, and will be present at the WTO Ministerial in Hong Kong.
Posted by ENEMY OF THE STATE at 6:41 AM - No Comments   Add a Comment  
 
 $ A Tale of Two Tax Bills $ Consumer Borrowing Plunges $ There go 800,000 jobs
 

http://lnk.nu/prospect.org/6up.ww

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A Tale of Two Tax Bills

Both the House and Senate are considering multi-billion dollar tax proposals.

By Robert B. Reich

Web Exclusive: 12.08.05

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Tax bills now wending their way through the House and Senate would cut about $60 billion in taxes next year. But there’s a huge difference between the two. The biggest item in a House bill is a two-year extension of the President’s tax cuts on stock dividends and capital gains. The House bill doesn’t touch what’s called the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). In contrast, the biggest item in the Senate bill is temporary relief from the AMT. But the Senate bill doesn’t extend the dividend and capital gains tax cuts.

No legislative choice in recent years has so clearly pitted the super rich against the suburban middle class. Most of benefits of the House’s proposed extension of the dividend and capital gains tax cuts would go to the top 1 percent of taxpayers, with average annual incomes of over $1 million. Most of the benefits of the Senate’s cut in the AMT would go to households earning between $75,000 and $100,000 a year, who would otherwise get slammed.

The AMT was enacted more than three decades ago to prevent the super-rich from using tax breaks to avoid paying income taxes. But it’s now the super-rich who are making off like bandits while the AMT is about to hit the middle class. That’s because the AMT was never indexed to inflation, which means it’s starting to reach taxpayers considerably below the super rich.

This year the AMT will affect over 3 million middle-class taxpayers who will no longer be able to deduct state and local taxes or use the child tax credit. Next year, if not adjusted, it will affect 10 million more taxpayers. So unless the Senate version of the new tax bill prevails, middle-class taxes will rise – even as the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 continue to reduce taxes on the very wealthy.

Here’s where things get politically interesting. Both groups – the super rich and the upper middle class – have lots of political clout in Washington, especially in Republican circles. So as these two tax bills move on a collision course, the multi-billion dollar question is: Which group will win?

The likely answer: both! Here’s betting the Senate and House will compromise by extending the dividend and capital gains tax cuts and by cutting the AMT. It’s an elegant compromise, of the sort Washington is skilled at making. There’s only one problem. With it, the budget deficit will explode even more.

The underlying question is, who ends up paying for Iraq, the Katrina cleanup, the Medicare drug benefit, homeland security, everything else? If the House has its way it won’t be the super rich, who will get their capital gains and dividend tax cuts extended. If the Senate gets its way it won’t be the middle class, who would otherwise be hit by the AMT. If the House and Senate compromise by giving both groups what they want, there’s only one group left.

That group is the poor and near poor. Cut more taxes on the super rich and the middle class and the only way Congress can say it’s grappling with the soaring budget deficit is to cut more programs for the poor. That means fewer food stamps, less Medicaid, and vanishing housing assistance.

Of course, this won’t be nearly enough to shrink the deficit. So in order to extend the tax breaks for the rich and to avoid the AMT, America will have to rely even more on foreigners – from whom we’re already borrowing more than $2 billion a day.

In the end it will be our kids and grandchildren who get the tab, because they’ll have to pay the foreigners back. And our current political leaders? They couldn’t care less because by then, they’ll be long gone.

Robert B. Reich is co-founder of The American Prospect. A version of this column originally appeared on Marketplace.

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© 2005 by The American Prospect, Inc.

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MORE BAD NEWS...

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http://lnk.nu/thestar.com/6uq

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U.S. Consumer Borrowing Plunges

Dec. 8, 2005. 01:00 AM

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WASHINGTON—Consumer borrowing in the United States plunged in October by a record amount in dollar terms, reflecting a big drop in demand for auto loans.

The Federal Reserve Board — the U.S. central bank — reported yesterday that Americans' borrowing fell by $7.2 billion (U.S.) at an annual rate in October, the biggest amount on record, with much of that decline reflecting a record drop of $5.6 billion, at an annual rate, in the category that includes auto loans. The declines were a drop of 4 per cent in overall borrowing, the biggest setback in nearly 15 years, and a decline of 4.9 per cent in the category that includes auto loans, the biggest drop in 13 years.

The big drop took analysts by surprise. They had been expecting that consumer spending would rise at an annual rate of $5 billion in October.

The decline in borrowing was certain to spark concerns about how much consumers plan on spending during the current holiday shopping season.

Associated Press

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ALSO...

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http://lnk.nu/money.cnn.com/6ur/

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There go 800,000 jobs out the door

UCLA: Housing slump to hit building and finance employment, slow the economy, but no recession seen.

December 8, 2005: 2:01 PM EST

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The expected downturn in the housing market could end up costing 800,000 construction and finance jobs, putting a big dent in economic growth over the next two years, a report from UCLA said.

But even with economic growth slowing as much as 1 or 2 percentage points, the nation should be able to avoid a recession, according to the widely watched report from UCLA Anderson Forecast.

The authors of the report admitted that they had forecast earlier this year that the slowdown in the housing market was going to start in mid-2005, which now looks like it was a little premature. But they noted that recent reports from home builders, real estate agents and the government indicate the slowdown may have now begun.

The report, released Wednesday, forecast a loss of 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 jobs in the financial services sector from the housing slowdown, but noted that job losses would not spread across many industries, other than some limited pullbacks in manufacturing.

"We actually think that we're being somewhat optimistic in saying we don't see it spreading beyond that," Edward Leamer, director of UCLA Anderson Forecast, told CNNMoney.com. "There will be weakness in retail, for sure, and in manufacturing. But not widespread losses."

Still, there are risks to the economy due to the housing slowdown, according to the school's report.

Its research shows that nine of the previous 12 drops in spending on residential housing were followed by recessions, and the latest report forecasts a decline in spending ahead.

But Leamer said the lack of the job loss in other sectors it the key to keep the economy out of recession, and keep the housing slump from being more severe.

"Housing is in a perilous position, ...(but) housing alone cannot constitute a recession," Leamer wrote in his section of the forecast, which is titled "No Recession Any Time Soon, But Troubles Ahead, Nonetheless."

The Anderson Forecast does not make a firm prediction on whether there will be broad or deep decline in home prices nationwide in the coming housing slowdown.

But it warns, "these may all be indications of an incipient decline in the housing market." It said its next forecast due early next year should have a better indication on home price direction.

Still, Leamer said that even if housing prices fall nationally, he doesn't expect a steep drop.

"Housing is driven by two things, one is jobs, one is interest rates," he said. "Unless you get severe job loss in a particular market that forces people to sell, the market recalibrates slowly to the overpriced status."

The forecast points to a number of factors for the coming slowdown in housing, including rising mortgage interest rates, slowing population growth, overbuilding and prices that had reached bubble-like heights in some hot real estate markets.

"On all these grounds, we believe housing is due for a sustained decline," wrote Michael Bazdarich, a senior economist with the Anderson Forecast. "The remaining questions are how hard the fall will be and when it will begin. Again, the recent anecdotal evidence suggests the decline may be beginning. We'll soon see for sure."

The report is just the latest in a series of readings suggesting a slowing real estate market ahead.

Thursday, major home builder Toll Brothers (Research) reported strong results for 2005 but warned that 2006 would be affected by a slowing real estate market, as it cut its earnings guidance for the coming year.

"It appears that the housing market is not as robust today as it was throughout 2004 and through the summer of 2005, although there is wide variation in local markets," said the company in its earnings report.

"Many believe the deceleration in price growth was inevitable, as the increases of 2004 and most of 2005 were not sustainable and were fueled, in part, by speculation," the company's report continued.

"Our sales results indicate that housing demand is returning to the more normalized levels of the decade from 1994 to mid-2003, before home prices really took off in quite a few markets."

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