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'VICTORY IN IRAQ': A STRATEGY TO MASK DEFEAT
By Richard Reeves
DECEMBER 9, 2005
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NEW YORK -- "Victory has a thousand fathers ..." John F. Kennedy once said, famously. Last week one of his successors, President Bush, used the word about that many times as he tried to explain how we would win one day in Iraq.
Alas, that is not going to happen. But Mr. Victory is talking as fast as he can to avoid thinking about JFK's next line: "Defeat is an orphan."
Hopefully, Bush, whom I characterized a week ago as running a strong race to be our worst president ever, will look a little better next week after the Iraqi elections we made possible. That would be a good thing for Iraq as it seems to collapse before our eyes. Certainly our ever-changing strategies there are collapsing. In fact, the "Plan for Victory," as the president called his speech at the U.S. Naval Academy, is a strategy to mask defeat.
Bravado aside, the new strategy, borrowed from failure in Vietnam and 19th-century British colonialism, could be called "Bases and Borders." The president put it this way: "We will increasingly move out of Iraqi cities, reduce the number of bases from which we operate and conduct fewer patrols and convoys."
What we will do, as laid out in the 35-page strategy paper that accompanied the Annapolis speech, is to begin redeploying our troops in force-protection areas. They will then venture out on raids now and then -- and try to secure the borders from what Bush called "regional meddling and infiltration." That means trying to block Syria, Iran and Turkey from pursuing their interests on Iraqi soil.
Newly trained Iraqi units will be left to try to turn the Iraqi-protected cities into larger versions of what were called "strategic hamlets" in Vietnam. The border strategy is an updating of the Demilitarized Zone between South and North Vietnam, or British forts along barren boundaries between tribes in make-believe countries. Unfortunately for us, the real problems of our adventure are already inside the borders of Iraq. Once more we are in a civil war, this time one we helped trigger by clumsily overthrowing a vicious dictatorship.
And all the while, as happened at home in the 1970s and happened in Britain in the late 1800s, we will tear up our own country in the process. I got a sample of that last week, when I compared Bush with poor old James Buchanan, blamed by many as the president who made our own Civil War inevitable. The number of e-mails I received topped 10,000 and counting, the majority of them heavy on two words, one printable, "f...ing" and "moron." (Many of them can be read on richardreeves.com or Yahoo!News Op-Ed.)
Not all the reaction was bad, and not all of the bad was bad. There are valid arguments for "staying the course," though I was partial to e-mail 11,409, which said on the subject of Iraq threatening us: "If we had waited for Vietnam to invade us, we'd still be waiting."
The basic thrust of the reaction to emphasizing Bush's proud and stubborn ignorance of history was that people like me, who were against this thing from the start and laid out how it would inevitably end, are the reason it has gone badly. Actually the reason adventures like this go badly is that we attacked people who have occupied desert or jungle for thousands of years, and will still be there a thousand years from now -- and we won't.
"The neighborhood is inhospitable," Bush told our future Navy and Marine officers. He got that right. It would have been better if he understood that from the beginning rather than listening to the flag-waving pipe dreams of Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz.
Pray for a good election next week. Let that be the beginning of Iraqis fighting each other for a new Iraq -- or no Iraq, which is a possibility. Then President Bush can "redeploy." He could take a lesson from his hero, President Reagan, who vowed to stay the course after his reckless words siding with Christians against Muslims in Lebanon in 1983 led to the killing of more than 250 U.S. Marine peacekeepers in a suicide bombing at the Beirut airport. Then Reagan waited a few weeks and announced "redeployment" -- to ships 30 miles offshore.
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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2005 12:00 AM
Ex-Marine leader poses hard questions about war
BY ADAM PARKER
The Post and Courier
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Within the first days of the invasion in 2003, the U.S. military dropped leaflets in Iraq: "Surrender and be part of the new Iraq."
"It was a brilliant success," said Nathaniel Fick, a former Marine commander who participated in that first campaign.
Then, as the operation began to heat up, the military dropped "humanitarian rations," which did not include pork or chemical heater packs, which some in Afghanistan had ingested to their great peril. The rations came in bright yellow boxes so they could be seen easily.
This won the hearts of many, Fick said.
Then the military began dropping cluster bombs, some of which failed to explode upon impact. They came in bright yellow packages, too.
"Wires get crossed, with unintended consequences," Fick said.
Those consequences - the erosion and eventual loss of trust in American forces and American policy - were the subject of a recent lecture Fick offered College of Charleston students and faculty when he stopped here as part of a book tour. He is the author of "One Bullet Away," a memoir of his experience as a commander in the Marines' elite 1st Reconnaissance Unit.
Fick was one of the first to respond to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as part of the invasion force into Afghanistan, and he helped lead the charge into Iraq about two years later. His book recounts his prewar training and experience in two conflicts as a captain of an infantry platoon.
His perspective is said to be unique because he was a Marine who straddled the historical line between pre-9/11 and post-9/11 America. His Dartmouth University education and degree in classics make his an especially articulate first-person account of battle.
But Fick is no yes-man.
He has harsh words for the Bush administration and its policies in the Mideast as well as for the yellow-ribbon crowd that refuses to question U.S. leadership.
"Occupation breeds resentment," he said. "When you have a boot on someone's neck, they don't appreciate it."
Fick bemoaned missed opportunities, such as the chance in December 2001 to go after Osama bin Laden in the mountains of Tora Bora after reliable intelligence showed the al-Qaida leader likely was holed up there. But senior brass called off the operation to seal the valleys - the only way out - instead leaving matters in the hands of the Afghan Northern Alliance.
Fick said he suspects some improvised negotiating resulted in bin Laden's escape.
"Kick the anthill and everyone would scatter," he said. "And they'll never be in one place again."
While Fick disparages some of the politics that determine the United States' Iraq policy, he is quick to point out that the Marines fundamentally are apolitical. The military is merely a tool politicians use to get what they want. And in the case of Iraq, it can only set the stage for the Iraqis themselves to rebuild their nation.
"Marines set preconditions for political change," Fick said. "The military, however, cannot affect that change."
Just because the Armed Forces are apolitical - they follow the orders of the commander in chief regardless of his party affiliation - that doesn't mean they have no politics, Fick said.
The military is made up of individuals who are overwhelmingly conservative and predominantly Republican, he notes. "And that's a problem."
When most people in an organization share the same view, the world is seen in terms that are too absolute, he said.
Fick, who worked with Canadian, British, Australian and German forces, said he had the sense that they were more diverse politically and economically than the U.S. military.
This diversity encourages a nuanced interpretation of world events, he said.
Still, in the throes of battle, Marines have no time to ruminate on the finer points of political strategies, Fick said. They are focused on the mission and cannot afford distractions.
That mission, which was to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction and set the stage for democracy, is terribly imperiled for several reasons, Fick said.
Perhaps the biggest risk is represented by a largely apathetic public.
"People don't care about it because it doesn't touch them," he said.
The vast majority of Americans have made no sacrifice or investment in the Afghan and Iraqi wars. Instead of asking them to turn in metal objects to the government or reduce their consumption of gasoline, President Bush merely encouraged more consumerism, Fick said in an interview.
"Americans were told to keep shopping!"
If you really support the troops, then fight to have the tax cuts repealed or encourage Congress to pass a gas tax, he said. Don't make Americans bleed, he said, make them pay.
"What's important to me is that we're not apathetic about it," he said. "I have more sympathy with the anti-war protesters, at least they're involved. My gripe is with the apathetic middle."
Fick, whose book and other writings have captured the attention of policymakers, military careerists and citizens alike, said he cannot agree with either of the options now on the table concerning Iraq.
To "stay the course" would be a huge mistake. "We're focused almost exclusively on offense, on killing insurgents," he said.
Instead, "We must provide concrete, tangible benefits to people in Iraq. In my view, we've done a poor job showing why our system is better than (terror leader) Zarqawi's system."
Likewise, Fick blasts those who advocate bringing the troops home now. Iraq could spiral into chaos, he said. The important thing is to empower Iraqis to govern themselves, and that can't be done overnight.
What's needed is a radical shift in strategy, one that brings the war home to Americans, encourages the development of alternative energy sources and changes the focus of the conflict away from fighting terrorism (which Fick defines as a tactic, not an enemy) to fighting the causes of terrorism.
His book tour has provided him with opportunities to exercise his rhetorical skills and confront some difficult questions posed by readers of "One Bullet Away." Fick said he expected more sympathy from pro-war Republicans and more tough questions from antiwar Democrats, but it's been the exact opposite.
Blue-state people seem to be relieved that an ex-Marine, of all people, would speak out against current policy, while red-state folks seem to be less willing to think through the issues, he said.
The exception is the military. There, people have been much more willing to listen critically, Fick said, because they are directly affected by the decisions that come from Washington.
The future of Iraq is still up in the air, he said.
At the lecture, he showed a photograph of a young Iraqi, perhaps 12, kneeling over a box of rations.
We are still within that window of time when actions on the ground have not yet established a destiny for this boy, Fick said. Whether he becomes a suicide bomber or a future elected president depends on what the United States and the Iraqis do today.
"What will this kid think in 20 or 30 years?" Fick asked his rapt audience. "I think it's still very much in doubt."
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December 11, 2005
Commission Finds Irregularities in Iraqi Voter Registration
By EDWARD WONG
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BAGHDAD, Iraq, Dec. 11 - With just four days to go until parliamentary elections, the Iraqi electoral commission said today that it had found irregularities in voter registration in the volatile northern oil city of Kirkuk.
The discovery was the first instance of an election irregularity announced by the commission as the country prepared for the vote on Thursday.
The commission said experts conducting an audit of voter lists found that there had been an unexpected surge in voter registration in the area. When the experts scrutinized the voter registration forms, the commission said in a written statement, they found that many had been filled out incorrectly. Some had missing signatures and others had more than one signature. In some cases, the same name appeared on several forms.
Adel al-Lami, the director general of the Iraqi electoral commission, said in an interview that in his view the voter registration irregularities were technical errors and not politically motivated. "Please stay away from political conspiracies," he said. "There's no political reason for this."
Kirkuk is considered one of the most potentially incendiary cities in Iraq, because of its diverse ethnic and religious mix and its oil resources. The area, north of Baghdad, has 10 to 20 percent of the country's oil reserves. As a result, several competing groups - Kurds, Turkmens and Arabs - claim dominance over the city.
Under the rule of Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab, the government pushed Kurds and Turkmens out of Kirkuk and moved in Arabs, many of them from the south. After the American invasion, the two main Kurdish political parties began an aggressive campaign of resettling the region with Kurds.
Homes for Kurds are being built at a fevered pace in Kirkuk, further stirring the fears of Arabs and Turkmens. Unlike the situation in Mr. Hussein's time, the Kurds also control the provincial council, the police force and most of the provincial ministries.
No reliable census of the city has been taken for decades. The new constitution says Kirkuk Province will hold a referendum vote by the end of 2007 to determine whether it will be governed by the autonomous northern region of Kurdistan, or by the central government. One expert on the area, Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group, has recommended that Kirkuk itself be designated a special autonomous region.
The election commission said today that Kirkuk had an average 45 percent increase in voter registration across the region, compared with an average 8.19 percent increase across Iraq. That prompted experts to look at the registration forms that had been turned in recently.
The commission said it would distribute to polling places a list of names for whom forms had been rejected, and that those people would not be allowed to vote.
The Ministry of Interior laid out security plans today for the period surrounding the elections. The measures are similar to ones put in place during last January's elections and during the constitutional referendum in October. The government will shut down from Tuesday to Saturday, as a national holiday, and a nightly curfew of 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. will be in place. In addition, civilians will not be allowed to carry guns even if they have a permit.
Iraqi forces will also clamp down on movement across the country's borders and on travel between provinces.
Advance voting is to take place Monday in hospitals and prisons.
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Kirk Semple contributed reporting for this article.
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Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company